How we write trade ideas, and how to read one

Our Telegram channel, @sokepwkq, shares trade ideas with full context: entry, stop-loss, targets and the reasoning behind each setup. This page explains what each of those parts means, why an idea without them is not worth reading, and how to do the risk arithmetic yourself. The ideas are educational examples of how a setup is read. They are not personal advice and not instructions to trade, and many of them will hit their stop-loss.

In one sentence. A trade idea is only useful if it says in advance where it is wrong; the stop-loss, not the target, is the most important line in it.

The five parts of every idea

1. Market and direction. Which asset, which market (spot or a perpetual future) and whether the idea is long (expects a rise) or short (expects a fall).
2. Entry. The price or price zone where the idea starts. If price never reaches it, there is no trade. An entry that says "now" is a market order at whatever the next price is — see the note on slippage below.
3. Stop-loss. The price at which the idea is wrong and is closed at a loss. It is set at a level that, if reached, breaks the reasoning — not at a round number chosen for comfort. Every idea we post has one.
4. Targets. One or more prices where part or all of the position would be closed at a profit. Targets are where the reasoning says price may run into selling (for a long) or buying (for a short); they are not predictions.
5. Reasoning and invalidation. Why the setup exists — for example, a level that has held several times, a break of a range, or a crowded funding rate (see what a funding rate tells you) — and what besides the stop would cancel it, such as a scheduled data release before the entry is reached.

If any of these five is missing, you cannot judge the idea, and you cannot compare it with what actually happened. That is the test we hold our own posts to, and the one we suggest you apply to any channel.

A worked example

This is a made-up idea, written to show the format. It is not a live call and the prices are rounded for the arithmetic.

The distance from entry to stop is $2,000, or 2.5% of the entry price. That distance is the risk per bitcoin, and it is called 1R. Target 1 is $4,000 above the entry, which is 2R; target 2 is $6,000 above, which is 3R. Writing targets in R makes ideas comparable whatever the asset or price.

Position size follows from the stop, not the other way round. Suppose a reader has decided in advance never to lose more than $100 on one idea (the figure is an example; the right amount is personal). With $2,000 of risk per bitcoin, the position is $100 ÷ $2,000 = 0.05 BTC, worth $4,000 at the entry. If the stop is hit, the loss is about $100 plus costs. If target 1 is hit, the gain is 0.05 × $4,000 = $200 before costs.

The arithmetic of risk and reward

A setup that risks 1R to make 2R does not need to be right most of the time. Ignoring costs, the share of ideas that must reach the target just to break even is risk ÷ (risk + reward).

The table is arithmetic, not a promise. A far target is reached less often than a near one, so a higher reward usually comes with a lower win rate. Ten ideas is also far too few to know anyone's real win rate: a run of six losses in a row is ordinary even for a setup that works. That is why any channel's results should be judged over many ideas, with every loser counted.

Costs that move the numbers

• Trading fees. Paid on the way in and the way out. On a tight stop they can be a meaningful share of 1R.
• Slippage. The SEC explains that a market order generally executes quickly but its price is not guaranteed, while a limit order sets a price or better but may never execute (Investor.gov: types of orders). Stops are usually filled as market orders, so a fast move can close a position beyond the stop price.
• Funding. On perpetual futures, holding a position can cost or pay funding every hour or every few hours. Our leverage desk shows today's rates.
• Leverage. Leverage does not change where the stop is; it changes how much of your account sits behind the position. With enough leverage, the exchange can close a position before the stop is reached. The CFTC warns that leveraged traders may lose more than their initial investment (CFTC: understand the risks of virtual currency trading).

What our ideas are not

• Not personal advice. We do not know your finances, your tax position or how much you can afford to lose. An idea is an example of reading a setup, not a recommendation for you.
• Not a guarantee. Many ideas will be stopped out. An idea that reaches its target does not prove the reasoning was right, and one that fails does not prove it was wrong.
• Not a paid service. The channel and the brief are free. We do not ask readers to send money or crypto to anyone to receive ideas or to "unlock" profits.
• Not managed money. We never ask for exchange logins, API keys, wallet seed phrases or access to your account.

Red flags in any signal channel

Regulators describe the same patterns again and again. The SEC's warning signs of crypto fraud include unsolicited contacts who build trust fast, urgency around a "new" opportunity, small withdrawals that make fake profits look real, and demands for fees or taxes before you can withdraw (Investor.gov crypto scams alert). The CFTC warns about "relationship" scams in which a new online contact steers victims to a trading platform that shows fake profits (CFTC advisory).

• Results that show only winners, or screenshots of profits with no entry, stop and date.
• Ideas with no stop-loss, or stops that are moved after the fact.
• "Guaranteed", "risk-free" or "100% accuracy" anywhere in the pitch — the CFTC is blunt: there is no such thing as a guaranteed investment or trading strategy.
• A private message offering a VIP group, an account manager or a platform you have never heard of.
• Any request to send crypto, pay a fee or share a login to receive returns.

If someone messages you privately claiming to represent a channel and asks for money, keys or a login, treat it as a scam, whoever they say they are. Our public contact is the channel itself, @sokepwkq.

Questions people ask

Are the trade ideas free?

Yes. They are posted on the public Telegram channel @sokepwkq, and the email brief is free too.

Should I copy the trade ideas?

No. They are educational examples of how a setup is read, not instructions to trade. If you trade, size positions from your own stop and your own limits, and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

What does R mean in a trade idea?

R is the distance from the entry to the stop-loss, the amount risked per unit. A target at 2R is twice that distance away from the entry, in the direction of the trade.

Why do so many trade ideas hit their stop-loss?

Because a stop is placed where the idea would be wrong, and markets often reach those levels. A setup can still be sound over many ideas if its winners are larger than its losers; the arithmetic is on this page.

Sources

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Types of orders and Investor Alert: crypto scams.
• U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Understand the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading and Relationship investment scams.

Risk warning. Educational content only, not financial or investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and you can lose all the money you put in. Trade ideas are examples of how a setup is read, not instructions to trade; many will hit their stop-loss.

Keep reading

• What a funding rate tells you, and what it doesn't
• Glossary: the terms used in our ideas and network notes
• About TradeSignalsHQ: sources, methods and corrections